Imus Gets to the Bottom of Egypt's Future, and K.T. McFarland's Nickname

In K.T. McFarland’s world, today is going to be an exciting day, as events in Egypt are expected to peak 18 days after demonstrators took to the streets demanding President Hosni Mubarak leave office after 30 years in power, and just one day after Mubarak indicated he would do no such thing.
 
“Today’s the crisis point,” McFarland, a national security expert, said. “Does the military side with Mubarak? Does the military side with the people?”
 
It will be, she concluded, “one of the most crucial days in anybody’s lifetime.” Should Egypt descend into chaos and install a radical Islamic government down the road, McFarland predicts other Middle Eastern countries will do the same. If, on the other hand, Egypt enacts some kind of “spotty” democracy, she thinks the region will follow.
 
Much of the country’s stability rests in the hand of the military, a well-respected body within the country, and also in the U.S. Just last week, a senior member of the U.S. military told McFarland he had been in frequent contact with the leadership of Egypt’s army. But a split in the Egyptian army, however, would be a very bad sign.
 
McFarland said, “The senior military leadership is definitely pro-U.S., but has also been hand-in-hand with Imus throughout…”
 
Realizing her mistake, McFarland quickly acknowledged she had meant to say Mubarak.  “They already call me a dictator around here,” Imus told his guest. “If it comes from somebody legitimate like you, I’m really screwed.”
 
She continued unfazed, pointing out that the junior leadership in Egypt’s army will be the ones deciding whether or not to side with the Egyptian people. “That’s what happened in the Iranian revolution in 1978-1979,” she said, noting that in Iran in 1979, the army there sided with the people, leading to the Shah’s removal.
 
She believes there is a potential for violence today, with demonstrators making their way toward the Presidential Palace and likely encountering pro-Mubarak and pro-Islamic crowds en route. Much of this might have been avoided if Mubarak had simply stepped down yesterday, as many, including President Obama, assumed he would.
 
“We should never get out in front of any of these things,” McFarland said, speaking about the U.S. government “Not just because we look like dopes, but because it makes somebody like Mubarak dig in his heels.” In turn, the protesters dig in their heels, and all we’re left with is two stubborn sides and one U.S. President who, in her opinion, “looks like he can’t get anything done.”
 
Not to say much can or will get done in Egypt if and when Mubarak leaves. “The Egyptians, in 4,000 years, have never had an open and free election,” McFarland said. “For 4,000 years they’ve been governed by pharaohs, and dictators, and kings, and generals.” As such, they also lack political parties; a free press; freedom of assembly; and an independent judiciary.
 
Ultimately, McFarland thinks Egypt will wind up in the hands of Islamic jihadists, or as a fledgling, Iraq-like democracy. Either way, this moment is historic. “This is bigger than the Berlin Wall coming down, this is bigger than the collapse of the Soviet Union, potentially,” she said.
 
She recommended the Obama administration take a cue from the Reagan administration, for which she worked in the CIA. “After the fall of the Berlin Wall, we just invaded Eastern Europe with political consultants, showed them how to set up political parties, how to run campaigns, how to find candidates, how to raise money for campaigns, how to have an election that wasn’t a ballot-stuffing exercise,” McFarland said. “It worked out pretty well.”
 
Asked how she came to be called “K.T.,” McFarland, whose first name is Kathleen, explained it happened while she was at the CIA, where male underlings were uncomfortable calling her “Kathy,” or “Ms. Troia,” her maiden name. “So, we stuck with K.T.,” she said.
 
Also because, as Imus observed, “‘Baby’ would have been out of the question.”
 
-Julie Kanfer