Dr. Richard Haass Conveys His Fears About Egypt's Future

In the eyes of Council on Foreign Relations President Dr. Richard Haass, Egpytian President Hosni Mubarak has got to go, sooner rather than later. “The army can’t stand around looking feckless,” he observed today. “On the other hand, it can’t restore order in his name.”
 
Countless Egyptians have taken to the streets over the last week to demand an end to Mubarak’s 30-year rule of their country, but Haass speculated today that such an event would mark the beginning of something else entirely.
 
“These millions of people out in the streets—the only thing they can agree on is they don’t like the current President of Egypt,” he said. “But then, like you always see in these kinds of revolutions, there will be a major falling out over what kind of Egypt to bring about.”
 
One possible version of Egypt would see Mohamed ElBaradei, an Egyptian Nobel Peace Prize winner, become President, even though, as Haass pointed out, he had no real following in the country until “he made both the timely and courageous decision to fly back just when this was beginning.”
 
Besides ElBaradei, the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamic political group founded in Egypt in 1928 that Haass said represents about a quarter to one-third of Egyptians’ views, is hoping to capitalize on the country’s vulnerability.
 
“The danger is that if and when Mubarak leaves the scene, that when all the other parties and individuals start going their own ways, the Muslim Brotherhood could be very organized,” he said. “It could be in something of a position to exploit the political vacuum.”
 
Regardless of who or which group steps up to the plate, Haass feels certain that Mubarak’s exit spells disaster for Israel. “If Egypt ever moved toward a more Islamic-style government, which I’m not predicting but you can’t rule it out, it’s conceivable that the entire relationship with Israel could change,” he said. “This is critical, because for 30 years now, essentially, Egypt and Israel have been at peace.”
 
While not a “warm peace,” as Haass put it, such an understanding has “taken off the table the possibility of the kinds of wars we saw in ’48, and ’67, and ’73, which was sort of a broad Arab-Israeli war.”
 
He added, with foreboding, “You’d never want to see that put back on the table.”
 
MubarakThe United States government, sensing Mubarak’s fragility, seems to be turning away from him, even though, as Haass noted, their relationship has been mostly advantageous to the U.S. for the duration of Mubarak’s tenure.
 
“In the case of Egypt, we got a pretty good return on our investment,” Haass said. “You got peace with Israel. The Egyptians joined the coalition against Saddam Hussein when he invaded Kuwait 20 years ago. They were stalwart against Al-Qaeda, and all forms of Arabic-supported terror.”
 
Right now, however, Haass’s advice to the United States was basically to butt out. “The less the administration says, the better,” he said, and referred to the situation as President Obama’s “first foreign policy crisis.”
 
In the end, Haass, who does more than just “sit around and think about stuff and drink tea” all day, despite Imus’s allegations to the contrary, thinks Egypt will be a messy, but not particularly violent, place after Mubarak eventually leaves.
 
Should he hang on for a few months, Haass predicted the army would then be faced with the choice of looking weak, or killing people. Another frightening outcome of Mubarak’s refusal to step down includes disillusioned Egyptians voting for anyone besides Mubarak, even a more radical candidate, just to get him out.
 
“If things get bad enough, lots of people will vote against Mubarak and side with the Islamic opposition, simply to bring order, simply because they so hate the regime,” Haass said. “The goal of U.S. policy has to make sure things don’t boil down to that kind of choice.”
 
-Julie Kanfer