Jeff Greenfield Speculates on His Own Future, and That of Egypt

Jeff Greenfield knows what’s up. And when he doesn’t, he says so, as he did this morning when discussing the tumultuous situation in Egypt. Admittedly not an expert on the subject, Greenfield, a senior political correspondent for CBS News, was still able to provide his characteristically measured assessment of the continuing crisis in the country, where citizens are demanding longtime President Hosni Mubarak vacate the post he has occupied for nearly 30 years.
 
Greenfield was struck by the pace with which the conversation in this country shifted last week from President Obama’s State of the Union address to talk of overthrowing the government in Egypt, calling it a “black swan” event that, when it happens, changes everything.
 
“The idea that the Arab country with the most powerful military of all, the one country whose peace treaty with Israel has kept that region from having a war for almost 40 years—if that country were to fall into unstable hands, all the assumptions about how you get anywhere with the Middle East go out the window,” Greenfield said.
 
The turmoil in Egypt seems to have drawn at least some of its roots from the recent uprising in Tunisia against now former President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who ruled the country for more than two decades before being ousted two weeks ago.
 
That autocratic regimes are bad, and don’t deliver to their people, is not news, Greenfield noted. People demanding better, however, is. But should Mubarak leave power, he would leave a void liable to be filled by anyone.
 
“Should the more radical elements in Egypt come to power, that has a lot of consequences,” said Greenfield. So far, the opposition seems to have coalesced around Mohamed ElBaradei, an Egyptian Nobel Peace Prize winner and former Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency who has been openly critical of Mubarak and the need for reform.
 
Hosni Mubarak“If he can ride the tiger, if there’s a genuine coalition that falls in behind him and Mubarak were to leave,” Greenfield said. “Maybe we can get through this without really awful consequences.”
 
But just a quick glance through history shows that people like Mubarak are unlikely to leave office in anything other than a body bag. “They tend not to be voted out of office, or say, ‘I think I’ll step down to spend more time with my grandchildren,’” Greenfield pointed out.
 
Hoping to avoid a similar fate here on this program, Greenfield smartly made sure he’d visit Imus first during his March tour for his latest book, Then Everything Changed. “We have 20 years plus of conversations and loyalty,” Greenfield said. “And I didn’t want to wake up in the morning with a horse’s head in my bed.”
 
-Julie Kanfer