Dr. Richard Haass Not Phased by Wikileaks, and Also Not Surprised

When you hear the title “President of the Council on Foreign Relations,” you think “ivory tower stooge.” Or at least, that’s what Imus thought the first time Dr. Richard Haass was booked on this show. “It turns out he’s great,” Imus said today.
 
The “document dump,” as Imus lovingly referred to the Wikileaks scandal that made public hundreds of thousands of classified cables concerning American foreign policy. “It’s rich!” Haass admitted, but said that as a former government guy, he believes secrecy and confidentiality make the system work.
 
The information culled from Wikileaks confirms, for the most part, what we already thought, in Haass’s view. “I think some of it’s interesting, some of it’s fun,” he said. “We actually learn some things. I don’t think it’s a crisis. I don think it’s a disaster for American foreign policy.”
 
The documents hinted at China’s disenchantment with its “ally” North Korea, and Haass learned as much in off-the-record conversations with Chinese officials during his last few trips there. “They think North Korea is crazy, they think they are dangerous,” he said.
 
This news did not surprise Haass, who was nonetheless happy to hear it. He was also pleased that conversations between the Americans and South Koreans about a unified Korean peninsula were made public. “The whole idea is to assure China,” he said. “To basically send the message, look—you guys shouldn’t worry about the end of North Korea. If this place is ever unified, it’s not going to be bad for you. You’ll still have commercial ties, American troops won’t be up near your border.”
 
Despite this news, China’s official policy remains very supportive of North Korea, and with good reason. “The Chinese are worried that if North Korea collapsed, hundreds of thousands or millions of people will come across the border,” Haass said.
 
More important, he continued, “They’re worried that if the country collapses, Korea gets unified, it’s going to be very much dominated by the United States. So from their point of view, strategically, it’s yet another country on their border that they see in our security camp, or somehow hostile to them.”
 
Had the U.S. reacted more aggressively to North Korea shelling a South Korean island two weeks ago, Haass predicted the North would have invaded the South, “a disaster for us and for South Korea.” China could then retaliate on North Korea’s behalf, both militarily and economically, by moving dramatically against the dollar. “They could create economic havoc in this country, and the world,” Haass said.
 
As for the Wikileaks scandal, Haass thinks it’s bad for the U.S. in general, but that no particular person walks away with egg on his or her face. “I actually think a lot of the American diplomats look pretty smart,” he said.
 
For instance, some of the cables revealed that American diplomats consider Russia to be a “gang” or “mafia” state, and not a real democracy. Others showed that Pakistan is not a real partner of the U.S., often saying one thing and doing quite another. 
 
“You end up seeing a bunch of American diplomats and analysts with 20/20 vision, telling it like it is, even if its slightly inconsistent with what we’d like the case to be,” Haass said.
 
Perhaps someone with equal clarity should be advising Vladimir Putin, who appeared recently on Larry King’s how. “He should have gone on with O’Reilly, who has all the people watching,” Imus noted. 
 
-Julie Kanfer