Scott Rasmussen Better Hope He's Right About This Stuff

As Election Day nears, pollster Scott Rasmussen told Imus that people will not be voting for Republicans tomorrow—they’ll just be voting against Democrats.
 
“They’re going to want to believe people have fallen in love with them all over again,” he said of Republicans, who are expected to win control of the House, and maybe even the Senate. “But in fact people are voting against the Democrats. They’re voting against what they’ve seen the past couple of years.”
 
Imus wondered if voters would at all consider what is best for the country, or if they are voting based on anger alone. “They’re trying to get these politicians to stop, and listen to some grownups,” Rasmussen said. “And they’re going to keep throwing them bums out until some of these guys listen to them.”
 
From President Obama’s perspective, losing both wings of Congress might not be the worst outcome. “He’d have somebody else he could share the blame with if things don’t go well,” Rasmussen explained.
 
President Bill Clinton found himself in a similar predicament after Election Day 1994, when both Houses went from being Democrat to Republican, but Imus doubts Obama is a skilled enough politician to jive with the opposition the way Clinton did.
 
“I don’t believe even President Obama knows what he’s going to do on Wednesday morning, because he really can’t picture what’s going to happen,” Rasmussen said.
 
Luckily, Rasmussen can picture what’s going to happen, thanks to the extensive, expert polling done by Rasmussen Reports. “The numbers we’re seeing right now are historically bad for the Democrats,” he said. “It is likely that there will be more Republicans elected to Congress on Tuesday than in any election since the 1920s.”
 
Governorships, Senate seats, and even State Houses are all likely to tilt Republican, leading Rasumussen to declare in a Wall Street Journal article this morning, “It’s not even a wave—it’s a tidal shift.”
 
As of today, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, is trailing Tea Party Republican Sharron Angle in the polls, and it ain’t looking good. “Angle is leading among unaffiliated voters,” Rasmussen pointed out.
 
In California, the Republican Meg Whitman trails her opponent for Governor, the Democrat Jerry Brown, by just four points, and Carly Fiorina, also a Republican, trails Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer by three. Both races, by Rasmussen’s estimation, are virtual toss-ups.
 
President Obama’s old Senate seat is up for grabs in Illinois, but the Republican Mark Kirk leads in the polls by four points. “It’s embarrassing,” Rasmussen said of the prospective Democratic loss.
 
On Election night, Rasmussen told Imus to watch the Senate race in West Virginia as a bellwether. “If the Republican wins that race…then you know it’s going to be a very long night for the Democrats,” he said, noting that it could also indicate a Republican takeover of the Senate, a notion that was considered unlikely until very recently.
 
As he gears up for the big night, Imus told his guest, “I hope you’re right about this stuff. Because if you’re not, then you just look stupid.”
 
-Julie Kanfer