Dr. Richard Haass on What Japan's Nuclear Emergency Means for the U.S., and Why He Opposed the No-Fly Zone in Libya

In the view of Dr. Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, it’s difficult to exaggerate the level of disaster in Japan, where a massive earthquake Friday triggered a devastating tsunami. To more accurately convey his assessment of the crisis there, Haass invoked the wise words of his former boss Colin Powell. 
 
“In a crisis, the initial reports are never either complete, nor accurate,” Haass said.
 
And something nobody knows for sure, not even the authorities, is how much radioactive material will ultimately be released by the meltdown or partial meltdown of any number of nuclear power plants scattered around the country.
 
“Large areas of Japan are going to be potentially difficult for people to go back and live, either because of radioactivity, or because their homes have been destroyed by the tsunami,” Haass said.
 
That Japan, one of the most modern societies in the world, will be so heavily disrupted for an unknown amount of time is an almost unimaginable prospect, both socially and economically.
 
“For the foreseeable future, the Japanese government is going to be totally preoccupied with this,” Haass observed. Meaning, essentially, “Japan is going to be somewhat missing from international involvement, simply because it’s going to be so concerned with recovery.”
 
The fallout from the Japanese earthquake will also hit the U.S., Haass predicted, by stirring debate over nuclear energy, a sector that was just beginning to revive itself.
 
“What everybody likes about nuclear energy is it doesn’t contribute anything to global warming,” Haass said. But with all the potential dangers of nuclear power now on display in Japan, “It puts a major question mark over the future of nuclear power in this country.”
 
And at the worst possible time: virtually all of the 100 operating nuclear power plants in the U.S. are slated for retirement over the next 40 years. “We have got to replace at a rate of about two or so nuclear power plants a year, just to stay even with the amount of electricity we get from nuclear energy,” Haass said. “I think the odds of our doing it now are considerably less, and I think highly, highly unlikely.”
 
Unlike in the aftermath of the 1995 earthquake in Kobe, Japan, the Japanese government has been accepting international aid this time around, most notably rival countries like China and South Korea.
 
“It’s a sense of just how bad this is,” Haass observed.
 
Before signing off, Haass touched briefly on the situation in Libya, where it seems longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi is going to retain power, despite demands from rebels that he leave. Haass chalked Gaddafi’s so-called “victory” up to him having greater firepower over his detractors, and praised President Obama for not instituting a no-fly zone over Libya.
 
“I didn’t think it would accomplish a lot,” Haass said. What’s more, he saw no proof that the rebels would be better than the person they were trying to throw out.
 
“It’s one thing to say, ‘Gaddafi is a thug,’” Haass noted. “But are we so sure the guys we’d be helping would be a bunch of Jeffersonian Democrats?”
 
-Julie Kanfer